Courier weighs in ahead of 'Fedal' clash

The four-time Grand Slam champion gave his views to rolandgarros.com on what promises to be a captivating couple of days in Paris.

Nadal and Federer’s RG so far…

“They’re each impressive in their separate ways. Rafa continues to dominate virtually everyone. David Goffin certainly took a charge at him, took a set, but Rafa was never in danger of losing that one, which is normal at this tournament. He rarely looks in danger here and so far, the same holds” said Courier ahead of Nadal facing Federer for the sixth time at Roland-Garros (5-0 Nadal).

“Roger, back here for the first time since 2015, but it is like he’s never left. The movement is so impressive. Normally as players age, they start to lose half a step, even a step of pace and that can be fatal. But he’s moving beautifully.

“He’s hitting his backhand better than he ever has here at Roland-Garros, topspin wise, which is incredible.

“It’s all set up for a wonderful semi-final clash, I couldn’t be more thrilled and I’m sure that you feel the same way to have the chance to see them play again.”

Rafa’s record over Roger... 

Nadal currently leads their head-to-head at 23-15 and hasn’t lost to Federer on clay in a decade back at Madrid 2009, the year Federer won Roland-Garros.

“They’ve played so many times, I don’t actually think it will be that challenging for Roger to adjust to that pattern playing a lefty, he’s made a nice adjustment in the last four meetings since 2017, winning all four,” continued Courier, referring to the four consecutive wins Federer recorded over the Spaniard, ignited by their Australian Open 2017 final.

“He’s won all of those four matches because he’s played far more aggressively, particularly off the backhand, taking the ball earlier, using patterns that Novak Djokovic deploys facing Rafa, such as hitting the backhand big across court.

“So it will be fascinating to see if he will be able to do that on a surface where the footing isn’t as secure and the bounces are less certain.”

The favourite for Fedal?

“I still have Rafa as the strong favourite. On clay, best of five, Roger has never beaten him in that environment, so I have him as the strong favourite.”

The other half… who is the biggest threat?

“Novak, but the weather is going to play a big part. If he gets to the final and he is physically a bit below 100 per cent then his chances drop significantly. As we saw in Rome (Nadal winning 6-0, 4-6, 6-1 in the final), if Novak is not there physically on this surface against Rafa, then he is going to struggle.

“I know I’m in the minority, but if Novak and Rafa arrive at the final on even terms physically, then I have Novak as the slight favourite. The numbers show Rafa should be the favourite, red clay, on the best of five, but both at 100 per cent and what is at stake for Novak, he wins for me.”

Can Zverev or Khachanov cause a shock?

“For Zverev, he knows what he is up against, he’s beaten Novak on clay before (Rome 2017 final) and he also beat him in the ATP Finals (last November). So he will have some confidence in the match-up, but in best of five, in tough, heavy conditions, it’s going to be hard to finish the point, so that won’t help his serve get through the court. 

“Why not though? He doesn’t have anything to lose, he has rarely been in these major situations, he has only got that far here. It’s a great opportunity for him to go out there, let it fly and see what happens.

“For Khachanov, he’s 1-0 over Thiem, defeating him in Bercy last year. He’s a player when he’s on fire he can just overpower anyone. Dominic Thiem is also that kind of player. So I feel sorry for the tennis balls to be honest, they’re going to be smacked around pretty hard.

“It will be interesting to see Karen, he’s recovered from a tough start to the year, we’ll see where he stands against the top, but the trickiest thing for all of them is the waiting game, seeing when they’ll actually be back on court.”