US Open 2024 – women's final: Pegula vs Sabalenka

Jessica Pegula (No.6) vs Aryna Sabalenka (No.2)

💪 The context / The current form

This really is a home Slam for Jessica Pegula as a Buffalo, New York, native. Ever since her Grand Slam singles debut at US Open 2015, it's been the ambition to reach this point – a Grand Slam singles final.

The build-up included WTA 1000 glory in Toronto and a final showing over in Cincinnati. That form has transferred to NYC this fortnight. A set and one point from being 0-3 down in the second set to Karolina Muchova in the semi-finals, Pegula somehow found a way.

"It's amazing. It's a childhood dream. It's a lot of hard work put in. You couldn't even imagine how much goes into it," stated Pegula. "If you would have told me at the beginning of the year I'd be in the finals of the US Open, I would have laughed so hard, because that just was where my head was, was not thinking that I would be here."

Defying recent injuries and lingering doubts, Pegula could clinch the "perfect" fairytale ending on home soil.

Aryna Sabalenka is at, or very, very close to the peak of her powers. The two-time Australian Open champion fell just short in the final last September to Coco Gauff and she still hasn't let that loss go. The 26-year-old insists she's learned hard lessons from dealing with an ardent home crowd, which will certainly be the case in battle with another home hope on Saturday night.

"Last year it was very tough experience, very tough lesson. Today in the match (vs Navarro), I was, like, 'No, no, no, Aryna, it's not going to happen again. You have to control your emotions. You have to focus on yourself.' There is your team in the box. There is your family. Just focus on yourself and just fight for it."

Pegula has won 15 of her past 16 matches. That sole defeat came to Sabalenka, who is on an 11-match winning streak. Something has to give.

🏆 Their 2024 tournament

Pegula will make Sabalenka work for every point, her stats across the board have been clean as a whistle. The 30-year-old leads the opposition in all three rally categories at Flushing Meadows with 0-4 shots (274-221), 5-8 shots (103-88) and 9+ shots (44-39). Of course, Pegula is going to have to absorb and redirect plenty of power, so the world No.6 will be eager to land more than her tournament average of 62 per cent of first serves in.

1st round: victory against Shelby Rogers 6-4, 6-3 (1h23mins)

2nd round: victory against Sofia Kenin 7-6(4), 6-3 (1hr27mins)

3rd round: victory against Jessica Bouzas Maneiro 6-3, 6-3 (1hr10mins)

Round of 16: victory against Diana Shnaider 6-4, 6-2 (1hr37mins)

Quarter-finals: victory against Iga Swiatek 6-2, 6-4 (1hr28mins)

Semi-Finals: victory against Karolina Muchova 1-6, 6-4, 6-2 (2hrs12mins)

For all the stats and percentages, it doesn’t matter as the No.2 seed Sabalenka is digging deep to hold more often than not, wining 51 of 57 service games so far. The 26-year-old is portraying her major credentials too by playing clutch at crunch time, erasing 21 of 27 break points faced across the six tests.

1st round: victory against Priscilla Hon 6-3, 6-3 (1hr19mins)

2nd round: victory against Lucia Bronzetti 6-3, 6-1 (1hr01min)

3rd round: victory against Ekaterina Alexandrova 2-6, 6-1, 6-2 (1hr40mins)

Round of 16: victory against Elise Mertens 6-2, 6-4 (1hr37mins)

Quarter-finals: victory against Zheng Qinwen 6-1, 6-2 (1hr13mins)

Semi-Finals: victory against Emma Navarro 6-3, 7-6(2) (1hr30mins)

🆚 Face-to-face

Totting up their career bouts it's Sabalenka who comes out on top 5-2. The most telling indicator of an edge-of-the-seat clash on Saturday is that they met in the WTA 1000 Cincinnati final a fortnight ago. That night Sabalenka took the glory 6-3, 7-5 and Pegula joked that she felt she was facing Serena Williams, due to the world No.2's rocket serves. Will Aryna hit Serena levels once again?

🎤 Heard in media

Jessica Pegula: "Obviously she's a really great hard court player, if not one of the best in the world, but I think I'm also a really good hard court player. Cincinnati, she served unbelievable, and I felt like I still had chances in that match.

"I think I know that I can have a game that can possibly frustrate her. I have to get her moving, serve smart, and try and put some pressure on her serve - play my game. You know, play within myself, pick my spots, not overdo it. Hopefully I'm able to execute that, and if there's something in the match that maybe is working or not working, then I can figure those things out."

Aryna Sabalenka: "We had a lot of great battles in the past, really difficult, tight matches. She playing really incredible tennis, playing her best tennis, I would say, and feels like she's back on track. I mean, she won the (Toronto) tournament, then she made the (Cincinnati) final, then she's here in another final. So she's in incredible shape. It's going to be another great battle against her. Yeah, cannot wait to play against her.

"Every time I'm coming back here I'm hoping that one day I'll be able to hold that beautiful trophy. Tough losses never made me feel depressed, they only motivate me to come back and to try one more time, try harder."