Paolini powers to Paris milestone

Paolini played the match of her life, weathering the ebbs and flows of a tense struggle to stun the 2022 Wimbledon champion, 6-2, 4-6, 6-4. 

She will face 17-year-old Mirra Andreeva in the semi-finals.

The story of the match 

Paolini entered this year’s Roland-Garros women’s singles draw having never been beyond the second round in five previous appearances, but the 28-year-old has blossomed in the last year and a half.

Ranked 53 in Paris this time last year, the fiery Italian has made a sensational surge up the rankings since. She made her top-20 debut on February 26th after claiming her biggest career title in Dubai. 

Paolini’s positive momentum continued on Wednesday as the Tuscany native went toe-to-toe with one of the most lethal forces in the women’s game and emerged as the fourth Italian player to reach the Roland-Garros women’s singles semi-finals in the Open era. 

Showing no sign of nerves in the biggest match of her career, Paolini raced off to a brilliant start, winning 16 of 17 points on serve in a dazzling opening set as Rybakina struggled to find her footing in breezy conditions on Court Philippe-Chatrier. 

After dropping the opener in 32 minutes, Rybakina’s struggles continued in the second set – at 1-1 she had already committed 20 unforced errors to just one for Paolini – but the world No.4 would soon dial in her strokes. 

A back-and-forth segment of the second set saw a more confident Rybakina nudge forward, and she eventually broke Paolini to force a decider, closing the set with a swift approach to the net and a well-placed backhand. 

Seven breaks in eight service games left the pair at 2-2 in the third, and with Rybakina now playing well (and sporting a 13-2 record in deciding sets on the season, compared to 5-5 for Paolini) the odds once again seemed to be slanted in her favour. 

But as the sun peered out from behind the Parisian clouds late in the third, Paolini began to shine once again. 

Rybakina made five consecutive errors, handing the Italian the break for 5-4, and the Italian showed her steel in the final game, producing an uncomplicated service hold to lock down her triumph in two hours and three minutes. 

Key stats 

A fast start set the tone for Paolini. The Italian won her first 15 service points of the match and produced three love holds in the opening set. Though her serving wasn't perfect from there, she served out the match without any trouble.

Paolini was the steadier player throughout, and her consistency paid dividends against a player who struggled with the wind and made more than twice as many unforced errors as her opponent. 

Paolini hit 22 winners and 22 unforced errors, while Rybakina hit 35 winners against 48 unforced errors. 

The Italian consistently got the better of crosscourt forehand exchanges, and it helped her keep her nose in front for most of the match. She hit eight forehand winners and eight unforced errors, while Rybakina hit 11 forehand winners against 32 unforced errors.

Rybakina did have had her moments, and she sparkled for stretches late in the middle set. Paolini led 6-2, 4-3, 40-15, but the 24-year-old surged back to win 12 of the final 17 points to prolong the match. 

Remarkably, Paolini has produced an 8-1 record at the Grand Slams this season, after entering the 2024 season with a 4-16 lifetime record in main draw matches at the majors.

Paolini's take on things: 

On her biggest career win: “It’s an unbelievable feeling. It was a really tough match. I think I was too emotional in the second set, but then I said to myself ‘Okay, she’s a great champion so it can happen.’ Just fight, try to keep it there, try to hit every ball and it worked – I’m here.” 

On dealing with the loss of the second set: “I just tried to stay there every point, and to forget what happened in the second set, because it can happen – it’s tennis, so it’s normal. I managed to come back and to stay focused, I just accepted it and fought again.” 

Rybakina on her performance:

"It's definitely not the greatest day. She played really well.

"She started much better. She was moving good. I started a bit slow, and she was aggressive from the first ball. Then I was just trying to find my game, which was always I would step back and I was trying to fight through, but in the end, it's not the greatest day in the office."

What the pundits said: 

“This is why Paolini is No.15 in the world right now. She runs down everything and doesn’t miss much.” – Martina Navratilova on Paolini’s ability to scamper and blanket the court with world-class defence. 

“Rybakina has to find some energy somewhere, she’s just flat as a pancake – or a crepe.” – Martina Navratilova, on Rybakina’s slow start. 

“Almost 75 per cent of her forehands have been going crosscourt – she wants that pattern and she’s been winning it.” – Lindsay Davenport, on Paolini’s domination of the forehand rallies.