US Open 2024 - Women's semi-finals: home charge

Emma Navarro (No.13) vs Aryna Sabalenka (No.2)

💪 The context / The current form

A plethora of pundits in the tennis media picked Aryna Sabalenka as their red-hot favourite for the title on Saturday night. It's proving to be a decent shout.

The No.2 seed, runner-up last September, has snowballed into some devastating form this fortnight to post a seventh Grand Slam semi-final in her past eight majors she's played in. The feel-good factor seems to be brimming from Team Sabalenka – her game, her energy, the tiger smile is ever-present – she has an abundance of experience and has evolved into one of the most consistent competitors out there.

Emma Navarro – hoping to be boosted by a home crowd – continues to chalk up new milestones in her breakout 2024 campaign. The 2021 college tennis champion has steadily built her game and sense of belonging. Nothing seems to faze her. "It's crazy that, you know, I'm able to walk out on Ashe and feel comfortable," said the 23-year-old. "Because it's definitely not my nature to want to be in the spotlight and seek the attention of a lot of people."

🏆 Their 2024 tournament

The stars and stripes breakout star has played clean and efficient tennis across the event. Navarro has impressed on return, retrieving 72 per cent of oncoming serves. Also, at crunch time, she has managed to fend off 61 per cent of break points, denying the opponent on 14 of 23 occasions. The Charleston native could yield more success up the court on Thursday night, having won 25 of 37 net points this fortnight.

1st round: victory against Anna Blinkova 6-1, 6-1 (59mins)

2nd round: victory against Arantxa Rus 6-1, 6-1 (1hr3mins)

3rd round: victory against Marta Kostyuk 6-4, 4-6, 6-3 (1hr53mins)

Round of 16: victory against Coco Gauff 6-3, 4-6, 6-3 (2hrs12mins)

Quarter-finals: victory against Paula Badosa 6-2, 7-5 (1hr12mins)

The No.2 seed has spent less than seven hours on court to soar into the Final Four. The serve has been a cannonball, with a 42-4 hold ratio and a useful 22 aces. Sabalenka has been excelling with her usual exhilarating brand of front foot tennis to carve out a gluttony of chances, however, she'll need to be even more ruthless over the net from Navarro having only converted 20 of 43 break points across the five matches thus far.

1st round: victory against Priscilla Hon 6-3, 6-3 (1hr19mins)

2nd round: victory against Lucia Bronzetti 6-3, 6-1 (1hr01min)

3rd round: victory against Ekaterina Alexandrova 2-6, 6-1, 6-2 (1hr40mins)

Round of 16: victory against Elise Mertens 6-2, 6-4 (1hr37mins)

Quarter-finals: victory against Zheng Qinwen 6-1, 6-2 (1hr13mins)

🆚 Face-to-face

Their previous battles are nicely poised at one apiece. Rewind to March and Navarro posted her biggest career win by ranking to outmanoeuvre Sabalenka 6-3, 3-6, 6-2 in the Indian Wells Last 16. A year before Navarro was still outside the Top 100 – now that is a transformation.

Sabalenka gained revenge on the terre battue in Paris with a 6-2, 6-3 scoreboard in the Roland-Garros fourth round.

🎤 Heard in media

Emma Navarro: "You know, big serve, big groundstrokes. So I take that on being aggressive and pushing back against her powerful game. As always, trying to scrap out some longer points and make her hit one more ball. She's been on this stage before. But I feel like, she might feel like she has something to lose, whereas I feel like I have everything to go after."

"That's something that I work on a lot, trying to put myself in a position to go after something, no matter the match or the opponent."

Aryna Sabalenka: "Yeah, she's doing really well. Beautiful to see she's working hard, playing really great tennis, smart tennis, moving well, hitting pretty heavy shots.

"Last two matches we played was really tough, tough matches physically and mentally. Even though I won the last one in two sets, it wasn't that easy match, and it was very intense match. I'm really looking for another great battle against her."

Jessica Pegula (No.6) vs Karolina Muchova

💪 The context / The current form

"Finally! I can say semi-finalist!" Jessica Pegula will never be quizzed by journalists about clearing the Grand Slam quarter-finals hurdle again. The 30-year-old has frequently been denied major progress by tour-leading stars, eventual champions. Wednesday's domination of world No.1 Swiatek proved Pegula is mentally and tennis-wise prepared for Grand Slam glory.

As for Karolina Muchova, the Czech – sidelined with a wrist injury and surgery for nine months since last year's US Open – has seamlessly returned to the semi-finals stage at Flushing Meadows. The Roland-Garros 2023 finalist is a unique and captivating talent. On her day, fully fit, Muchova has everything at her disposal to lift the biggest prizes in tennis.

Check out their route to the semi-finals below. Pegula and Muchova more than deserve their standing.

🏆 Their 2024 tournament

It's been clean as you like from the world No.6 without dropping a set en route to the Final Four. A strong indication of form is that Pegula leads her opponents in all three rally categories of 0-4 shots (223-173), 5-8 shots (81-62) and 9+ shots (30-26). The stats across the board are pleasant reading for the American.

1st round: victory against Shelby Rogers 6-4, 6-3 (1h23mins)

2nd round: victory against Sofia Kenin 7-6(4), 6-3 (1hr27mins)

3rd round: victory against Jessica Bouzas Maneiro 6-3, 6-3 (1hr10mins)

Round of 16: victory against Diana Shnaider 6-4, 6-2 (1hr37mins)

Quarter-finals: victory against Iga Swiatek 6-2, 6-4 (1hr28mins)

The Czech has been ramping up the pressure from the get go with 74 per cent of returns into court. The 28-year-old has also kept her rivals off balance, constantly guessing, with her vast array of shots. For example, Muchova has managed to win 29 of 36 serve and volley points. It's a retro tactic and a very astute move.

1st round: victory against Katie Volynets 6-3, 7-5 (1h41mins)

2nd round: victory against Naomi Osaka 6-3, 7-6(5) (1hr34mins)

3rd round: victory against Anastasia Potapova 6-4, 6-2 (1hr13mins)

Round of 16: victory against Jasmine Paolini 6-3, 6-3 (1hr9mins)

Quarter-finals: victory against Beatriz Haddad Maia 6-1, 6-4 (1hr25mins)

🆚 Face-to-face

They first collided on court just last month at the WTA 1000 Cincinnati tournament. Pegula arrived fresh from lifting a first WTA 1000 trophy over in Toronto, Canada. Muchova as a first match is as difficult as it gets, which was portrayed in a 5-7, 6-4, 6-2 scoreline.

🎤 Heard in media

Jessica Pegula: "I'm a big fan of hers. I think she's so good, so talented, so skilled as a tennis player, so complete. Doesn't have a ton of weaknesses. I always laugh because she should be seeded but she never is. When she draws somebody good first round, I'm like, 'Oh, she's back,' floating around in these draws, and I don't want a part of that," said the No.6 seed with a smile.

"So in Cincy, I finally had to play her first round. I was like 'damn it.' But maybe it was a good thing in the end because now we get to play each other, and hopefully it will be a good match. 

"Obviously it doesn't seem to matter how many matches she's really gotten in, she seems to have good results no matter what. It's cool to kind of see her back, because I think she's really great for the game and the way she plays is really fun."

Karolina Muchova: "She's playing unbelievable. Toronto title and then finals in Cincinnati. I mean, she's on fire, obviously having great confidence playing this deep in the tournaments week by week, here as well," said the 28-year-old.

"We played on the parking lot in Cincinnati. That was tough battle. A little bit different conditions, I would say. It was very tough to play there, but she's just great player, playing very deep in the court, good mover. She didn't give me one point for free, so very, very tough battle."